Also, this list focuses on those who voted against cloture last time and may switch to vote in favor of it next time, the assumption being that senators who voted for it last time will be unlikely to switch. However, if you have any news about pro-cloture senators who have announced that they may switch to vote against it, tell me about it, and I can revise this list....
UPDATE: At the moment, this list is mainly tracking who will switch for the first cloture vote to bring the bill to the floor--not necessarily the second cloture vote to end debate on the bill (and allow for a vote on the bill's passage)--though there is, I think, some overlap...see my analysis of this vote list after the vote
6/26 UPDATE: Bingaman and Cochran declare that they will switch; Coleman seems to declare for cloture; move to "Very Likely"
6/25 UPDATE: Cloture update. See revised vote list. Boxer moves to "Very Likely"
6/25 UPDATE: Is Webb going to vote no?
6/25 UPDATE: Voinovich may switch against cloture; Gregg declares for cloture; the perception game, especially for Bennett and Coleman
6/22 UPDATE: Smith against cloture (sort of)--moves from "Likely" to "Somewhat Unlikely"; see other updates down the list and this post.
6/22 UPDATE: Alexander declares against; moves from "Could Very Well" to "Very Unlikely"
Corker declares against; Burr wavers; could Brown switch pro-cloture to anti?
6/21 UPDATE: McCaskill declares against cloture--moves to Very Unlikely
Cornyn declares against cloture; moves to Very Unlikely
6/21 UPDATE: Based on continued reports of indecision, Hatch moves down to "Could Very Well Switch"
6/21 UPDATE: Crapo and Roberts declare against cloture; Sununu declares against
6/21 UPDATE: Hutchison declares against cloture--moves to Very Unlikely; Thune moves to Very Unlikely; constituent caller was told that he would vote against cloture
6/20 UPDATE: Chambliss and Isakson declare against cloture. Move to Very Unlikely
6/20 UPDATE: Has a deal been struck--amendments for cloture votes? If that theory's true, we could see Boxer, Hutchison, Thune, Tester, Baucus, McCaskill, Grassley, Coleman, Sanders, Webb, Bond, and Ensign switch from that deal alone. See this synthesis of both amendments-for-cloture and 17R's switch theories. UPDATE: Maybe there isn't such a deal after all (or at least not a universal one)....
6/20 UPDATE: Webb, Tester, McCaskill under pressure; will 17 R's switch?--a lot of R's become more likely to switch; see revised list below. The amendment process could be crucial...
6/19 UPDATE: Coleman and Ensign keep their options open; Webb says he will not vote in favor of a wide-ranging legalization--count Webb a little less likely to switch (if the legalization is not more limited...)
6/17 UPDATE: See this post on the GOP leadership giving "Reid no assurances about cloture on the bill"--is the hunt still on?
6/15 UPDATE: Story on "vote trolling" in the Senate; pressure keeps being applied. Story lists Hutchison (R-TX), Corker (R-TN) and Alexander (R-TN) are "regarded as potentially persuadable." See this post. Corker moves up to "Could Very Well Not Switch" from "Somewhat Unlikely to Switch"
6/14 Update: See this post on D Sen.'s and indecision of Chambliss, Isakson, Ensign, and Cornyn.
List of those who voted against cloture last time and how likely they are to switch to vote in favor of cloture next time (assuming there is a next time for this bill)...The bill needs 15 more cloture votes to continue...(assuming no pro-cloture voters switch to anti-cloture: add 1 to 15 for every pro-to-anti switch: e.g. if one sen. switches to be against cloture, the bill then needs 16 switches in favor of cloture...)
Switch from pro-cloture to anti-cloture?
Sherrod Brown (D-OH):Is he on the fence? Brown, a purported ally of labor, voted in favor of cloture last time, but I am hearing (thanks to some readers) that he has concerns and "serious reservations" about elements of the bill, especially the "guest worker" program and that he is undecided about cloture next time. So could he switch to vote against cloture? Especially now that the AFL-CIO is against the bill? Anyone have any more info?
Ben Nelson (D-NE) voted for cloture last time but has been pretty skeptical about this bill, and he voted against last year's bill. Even if he ultimately votes against this year's bill, he may still vote for cloture. Last year, he voted against S.2611 but for cloture on it. He says he's still against "amnesty" based on reports I'm getting--but does anyone have any info. about how he'll go for cloture on this bill? 6/15 Update: See this letter to one of his constituents; Nelson says he wants to "move the legislative process forward," so it sounds like he will probably still vote for cloture. 6/22 UPDATE: Could he still be on the fence? 6/25 update.: It sounds like he'll still vote yes on cloture
Stabenow (D-MI): Could she really switch to vote against cloture?
Levin (D-MI): Is he on the fence for cloture?
Conrad (D-ND): Is he on the fence for cloture?
Voinovich (R-OH): may switch against cloture?
Very Likely to Switch
Kyl (R-AZ)-coalition member
Lott (R-MS)--pushing hard for bill; willing to "reign in" dissenters
McConnell (R-KY)-pushing hard for bill
Craig (R-ID)--has said he will
Gregg (R-NH)--voted in favor of bill last year; update; declares for cloture
Boxer (D-CA)--voted in favor of bill last year; amendments for cloture votes? on the fence?;update; news story says she backs cloture for now...
Bond (R-MO)--voted against cloture last year; amendments for cloture votes?; on the fence?; sounds like he's voting for the first cloture...
Murkowski (R-AK)--voted in favor of bill last year; declares for cloture
Cochran (R-MS)--voted in favor of cloture last year; update; update--he could switch; has declared in favor of cloture
Bingaman (D-NM)--voted in favor of bill last year--but has been a little more critical now; on the fence? update. declared for
Coleman (R-MN)--up for re-election; voted for bill last time, but has been more critical now; amendments for cloture votes?; the perception game,; seems to have declared for
Likely to Switch
Collins (R-ME)--voted in favor of bill last year
Snowe (R-ME)--voted in favor of bill last year
Domenici (R-NM)--voted in favor of bill last year; update
Stevens (R-AK)--voted in favor of bill last year
Warner (R-VA)--up for re-election; voted for bill last time, but, w/Webb, he might not switch; or maybe he will switch
Bennett (R-UT)--voted in favor of bill last year; the perception game,
Burr (R-NC)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic---BUT he's wavering.
Could very well switch
Hatch (R-UT)--voted in favor of cloture last year; but maybe remains undecided, still
Webb (D-VA)--new but has been somewhat skeptical; amendments for cloture votes?; on the fence? voting no?
Ensign (R-NV)--seemed at one point slightly favorable to bill, but it's hard to say....see this post; amendments for cloture votes? on the fence?
Sanders (I-VT)--who knows! He's independent!; amendments for cloture votes; could he be against?
Baucus (D-MT)--up for re-election; also seems skeptical (even though he voted for bill last time); amendments for cloture votes?; some count him anti-cloture
Tester (D-MT)--seems skeptical....; amendments for cloture votes?; some count him anti-cloture
Could Very Well not Switch
Grassley (R-IA)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic; amendments for cloture votes?
Pryor (D-AR)--up for re-election; voted in favor of bill last year, but more critical now; some count him anti-cloture
Somewhat Unlikely to Switch
Landrieu (D-LA)--up for re-election; some count her against cloture
Dorgan (D-ND)--voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic--but amendments for cloture votes?
Rockefeller (D-WV)--has been a skeptic with Byrd
Smith (R-OR)--voted for bill last year, but could be up for a tough re-election; against cloture (sort of)
Very Unlikely to Switch
McCaskill (D-MO)--new but still seems skeptical; amendments for cloture votes?; declares against cloture
Cornyn (R-TX)--up for re-election; voted against bill last time; declared against cloture
Hutchison (R-TX)--voted for cloture last year (but also against bill); amendments for cloture votes? NOW declared against cloture
Corker (R-TN)--new but still seems skeptical: see this story ; has declared against
Alexander (R-TN)--voted for cloture last time; declared against
Isakson (R-GA)-- declared against cloture
Chambliss (R-GA)-- declared against cloture
Roberts (R-KS)--voted against cloture last year; declared against
Crapo (R-ID)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic; declared against cloture
Sununu (R-NH)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic; has declared against
DeMint (R-SC) signed enforcement letter to president; declared against
Thune (R-SD)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic; amendments for cloture votes?--probably not; caller to office was told he would vote against cloture
Byrd (D-WV)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Sessions (R-AL)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Shelby (R-AL)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Dole (R-NC)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Vitter (R-LA)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Allard (R-CO)--voted against cloture last year
Inhofe (R-OK)--voted against cloture last year
Bunning (R-KY)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Missed Last Cloture
Enzi (R-WY)--often misses votes on clotures for immigration bills--has missed votes for last year's cloture and this year's...sounds against cloture
Brownback (R-KS)--sends a lot of mixed signals, but seems--sometimes--in favor of bill...
Coburn (R-OK)--probably against cloture; sounds against cloture
Johnson (D-SD)--unlikely to vote at all (ill health)
Here's the official Senate vote list on cloture for last week:
| YEAs ---45 | ||
| Akaka (D-HI) Bayh (D-IN) Biden (D-DE) Brown (D-OH) Cantwell (D-WA) Cardin (D-MD) Carper (D-DE) Casey (D-PA) Clinton (D-NY) Conrad (D-ND) Dodd (D-CT) Durbin (D-IL) Feingold (D-WI) Feinstein (D-CA) Graham (R-SC) | Hagel (R-NE) Harkin (D-IA) Inouye (D-HI) Kennedy (D-MA) Kerry (D-MA) Klobuchar (D-MN) Kohl (D-WI) Lautenberg (D-NJ) Leahy (D-VT) Levin (D-MI) Lieberman (ID-CT) Lincoln (D-AR) Lugar (R-IN) Martinez (R-FL) McCain (R-AZ) | Menendez (D-NJ) Mikulski (D-MD) Murray (D-WA) Nelson (D-FL) Nelson (D-NE) Obama (D-IL) Reed (D-RI) Reid (D-NV) Salazar (D-CO) Schumer (D-NY) Specter (R-PA) Stabenow (D-MI) Voinovich (R-OH) Whitehouse (D-RI) Wyden (D-OR) |
| NAYs ---50 | ||
| Alexander (R-TN) Allard (R-CO) Baucus (D-MT) Bennett (R-UT) Bingaman (D-NM) Bond (R-MO) Boxer (D-CA) Bunning (R-KY) Burr (R-NC) Byrd (D-WV) Chambliss (R-GA) Cochran (R-MS) Coleman (R-MN) Collins (R-ME) Corker (R-TN) Cornyn (R-TX) Craig (R-ID) | Crapo (R-ID) DeMint (R-SC) Dole (R-NC) Domenici (R-NM) Dorgan (D-ND) Ensign (R-NV) Grassley (R-IA) Gregg (R-NH) Hatch (R-UT) Hutchison (R-TX) Inhofe (R-OK) Isakson (R-GA) Kyl (R-AZ) Landrieu (D-LA) Lott (R-MS) McCaskill (D-MO) McConnell (R-KY) | Murkowski (R-AK) Pryor (D-AR) Roberts (R-KS) Rockefeller (D-WV) Sanders (I-VT) Sessions (R-AL) Shelby (R-AL) Smith (R-OR) Snowe (R-ME) Stevens (R-AK) Sununu (R-NH) Tester (D-MT) Thune (R-SD) Vitter (R-LA) Warner (R-VA) Webb (D-VA) |
| Not Voting - 4 | ||
| Brownback (R-KS) Coburn (R-OK) | Enzi (R-WY) Johnson (D-SD) | |
