Sunday, July 1, 2007

Republican gains from the failure of cloture? While many news stories have focused on the electoral risk posed to Republicans by the failure of to accomplish the "grand bargain," Rasmussen has come out with an interesting result showing the possibility of some electoral benefit to Republicans:

During the month of June, the number of people identifying themselves as Republicans increased and the number of Democrats was little changed. That’s the first time in 2007 that the number of Republicans has increased. (see history). The gap between the parties the smallest it has been since last July.


The Democrats' net advantage over Republicans is now 4.1 percentage points, down a point-and-a-half from a month ago. However, it’s a long way from Election 2004 when the Democrats’ net advantage was just 0.6 percentage points.

A separate survey found that Democrats continue to enjoy a large lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

The immigration debate appears to have helped the Republican Party while hurting the President and other supporters of the “comprehensive” reform legislation. Prior to the debate, 47% of voters trusted Democrats more on the immigration issue. Following the failure of the Senate bill, just 39% trust the Democrats more on the issue. In fact, among unaffiliated voters, Republicans are now trusted more than the Democrats on immigration. The only other issue where the GOP can make that claim is national security.

32% of those surveyed called themselves Republicans; 36.1% called themselves Democrats.