Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Strategy question: Numbers USA is urging its members to vote in certain states for Mike Huckabee in order to stop John McCain. But there does seem to be some hint of an anti-Romney McCain-Huckabee alliance, so does it really make sense (from their perspective) for their strategy to support Huckabee--particularly in states where Romney's pretty close to McCain/Huckabee? Like Tennessee or Missouri...
A stronger showing on Super Tuesday could give Huckabee more of a motivation to stay in, and, if Romney decides to keep fighting for the nomination after today, won't that presence of Huckabee represent a continued risk of splitting the non-McCain vote? Which is what McCain/Huckabee may want....
UPDATE: Gallup offers some statistics showing that pro-Huckabee forces may be more likely to break for McCain than Romney. But I think it partially matters which aspects of the Huckabee coalition may favor McCain over Romney--particularly in close states. But there are other ways Huckabee can hurt Romney, too. His persistent attacks on Romney don't seem to have helped Romney too much...